Stellar [XLM] is down 16% over the past month and down 3.2% over the past week. The altcoin has been making a series of lower highs on the price charts since July 2025.
This downtrend was broken by a swift price surge in late May. The rally reached a local high of $0.297 by May 30, but the XLM crypto has sunk back into a bearish phase.
This spot CVD metric from CryptoQuant measures the cumulative buying and selling over 3 months. It has been negative since June, meaning that aggressive sellers dominated the spot market.
It does not bode well for holders, even though the swing structure of XLM crypto was bullish.
May rally keeps Stellar structure bullish
The Stellar-DTCC partnership news in late May sparked a strong upward move, but it has not been sustained. The sell-off saw XLM crypto prices fall below the 78.6% retracement level at $0.173.
Yet, the swing structure is bullish. Hope of a reversal appeared slim, based on the evidence at hand.
The CMF on the daily timeframe was steadily below -0.05 in August to reflect sizeable capital flow out of the market. The MFI was hovering around 20 to show extreme downward momentum and lack of buying pressure.
It appeared likely that the $0.139 support would be tested in the coming weeks.
Traders’ call to action- Sell the bounce
The CMF on the 4-hour chart was also below -0.05. Over the past two days of trading, XLM crypto has tested the $0.16 supply zone [red box] and faced rejection. The buyers were too weak to force a pullback even as high as the 50% retracement at $0.161.
A price bounce to $0.161-$0.164 would offer an ideal selling opportunity. Due to a lack of buying pressure, further downside appeared more likely than such a bounce. In this case, a breakdown below $0.155 would also offer a selling opportunity.
Final Summary
- The XLM crypto swing structure on the daily timeframe remained bullish due to the price action following the DTCC partnership news in May.
- The persistent selling pressure and clear lack of buying would likely see the altcoin fall toward the $0.139 support in the coming weeks.
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