Galaxy Digital believes bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and that the crypto asset is now in the early stages of what could become its next bull market.
In a research report released Monday, Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, argued that much of the selling that drove bitcoin down from its October 2025 peak has run its course. Meanwhile, investors who held through the downturn have shown little sign of leaving.
Bitcoin traded around $79,800 on Thursday, roughly 35% below its record high. Thorn believes it can return to at least $125,000, partly because of who’s buying and selling.
Asset managers have cut their net long positions in CME bitcoin futures by 57% since last year’s peak, while spot bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low. That suggests speculative traders have pulled back even as other investors continue to accumulate, said Thorn.
Bitcoin’s price charts tell a similar story. The cryptocurrency has climbed back above its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks below it, a pattern that has marked the end of past bear markets. Thorn also argued that mounting U.S. debt and the risk of further currency debasement make bitcoin’s fixed supply more appealing.
There are risks. A sustained drop below $76,540 would call the recovery into question, according to Thorn. Nevertheless, his broader point is that bitcoin no longer needs a surge of speculative buying to find its footing as much of that money has already left, and the investors who remain appear willing to wait.
