The altcoin market cap has dropped from $1.85 trillion to $1.05 trillion at press time in just a month. At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index was trading at 44, indicating that the market was still in a Bitcoin [BTC] season.
The chart below clearly shows that the index has repeatedly attempted to move higher but has struggled to sustain readings above 75.
As expected, this has prompted a question: Is altcoin season now off the radar in 2026?
Bitcoin outpaces altcoins
Alphractal analysis shows that around August to October 2026, both Bitcoin’s 60-day return and the median altcoin’s return climbed to roughly +50-60%, with altcoins moving in sync. But, by November, both lines have dropped back to roughly 0%, and the median altcoin sits slightly below Bitcoin.
Simultaneously, the median altcoin vs. Bitcoin chart shows the gap directly, as it was standing at -5.91%. The green spike in October (about +25%) has fully reversed into red, meaning the median altcoin now trails Bitcoin by about 6% in over sixty days.
This shows how the pattern fits earlier cycles, where altcoin outperformance came in short bursts that faded quickly. Currently, altcoins are weaker than Bitcoin but not in deep capitulation.
Remarking on the same, João Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, argued,
Altcoins signal Bitcoin tops with a high degree of probability!
Echoing similar sentiments, Benjamin Cowen, founder & CEO, ITC, added that “Q4 has arrived,” but the price chart he attached suggests a broad red day, with Bitcoin at about $74,875 (-1.19%), but altcoins are falling harder.
Adding more to the ongoing concern, Wealthmanager also called the current market situation a “full capitulation” phase with about $380 billion more selling than buying, claiming it is seven times worse than 2022’s bottom.
Is altcoin season actually losing its steam?
At the same time, Bitcoin dominance is stable above 60% at press time, and altcoins not gaining share fits the weak Altcoin Season Index very well.
However, ETF flows on 6th November show net outflows almost everywhere. Starting with BTC ETFs, which lost $1.28 billion, and Ethereum [ETH] ETFs, which recorded $365.28 million, the second-largest outflow.
Lastly, Hyperliquid [HYPE] was hit by $15.62 million in outflows, Solana [SOL] recorded $26.25 million, Avalanche [AVAX] recorded $1.27 million, Chainlink [LINK] saw $1.06 million, and XRP, Litecoin [LTC], and Binance [BNB] each recorded outflows under $1 million.
It was only Hedera [HBAR] that recorded an inflow of $3.01 million. In other words, institutional money is leaving both Bitcoin and altcoins, not rotating from one to the other. This followed a recent report by AMBCrypto, which already indicated at the end of October that altcoin speculation has slowed down.
Final Summary
- Though the Altcoin season index repeatedly attempted to move higher, it struggled to sustain above 75.
- Altcoin ETFs, along with Bitcoin ETFs, saw outflows on the 6th of November.
