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Bitcoin price analysis: Here is the real reason why bitcoin is crashing, according to an analyst

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Bitcoin price analysis: Here is the real reason why bitcoin is crashing, according to an analyst


Bitcoin’s slide below $60,000 may have less to do with Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) and more to do with inflation creeping higher, one analyst argued.

In a Monday report, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, wrote to clients that investors have largely misread the drivers behind crypto’s sharp selloff over the past weeks. While much of the market focused on Strategy’s first bitcoin sale since 2022 and the potential overhang if the largest corporate holder sells more, the bigger story has been a wave of institutional selling through spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF), he said.

Since the U.S. inflation report for April came in higher than anticipated on May 12, U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $5.4 billion in net redemptions, Thielen noted. During the same period, Strategy accumulated about $2 billion worth of bitcoin, making it one of the few significant buyers in the market.

“The market has misdiagnosed this selloff,” Thielen wrote. “Strategy is not the problem.”

Thielen said that attention should turn now to Wednesday’s consumer price index report for May, which could determine whether bitcoin’s recent correction deepens or stabilizes.

10x’s model forecasts annual inflation rising to 4.3%, above both the previous month’s 3.8% reading and Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 4.2%. A reading above 4% could reinforce concerns that the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates higher for longer, or potentially even consider additional hikes, the report said.

That would be unwelcome news for risk assets. Markets entered the year expecting multiple rate cuts, but after a string of hotter-than-expected inflation and labor market readings traders are now pricing out easing altogether and increasingly discussing the possibility that the Fed’s next move could be a hike rather than a cut.

While bitcoin appears technically oversold after its recent plunge, Thielen cautioned against treating a short-term bounce as the start of a sustained recovery. The firm expects bitcoin could see a relief rally early in the week, but the move will likely to fade if inflation surprises to the upside.

The broader flow picture has also remained weak, 10x Research said. Stablecoins recorded roughly $1.7 billion of net outflows last week and $5.5 billion over the month, suggesting capital leaving the crypto market. Meanwhile bitcoin futures open interest has fallen sharply as traders reduced exposure.

Thielen said ETF flows remain the key metric to watch to gauge bitcoin’s next move. “Institutional ETF flows are driving price,” he wrote. “Follow the money, not the narrative.”

Read more: Bitcoin’s slide has no single cause. AI, tech IPOs, quantum, Strategy sale all play a role, NYDIG says



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Is PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) A Good Stock To Buy Now?

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Is PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) A Good Stock To Buy Now?


Is PBF a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on PBF Energy Inc. on Valueinvestorsclub.com by Viper23. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on PBF. PBF Energy Inc.’s share was trading at $39.82 as of May 28th. PBF’s trailing and forward P/E were 10.51 and 11.99 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Keefe Bruyette Raises its Price Target on Walker & Dunlop (WD) to $67

Pixabay/Public Domain

PBF Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the refining and supplying of petroleum products. It operates through two segments, Refining and Logistics. PBF is presented as a compelling deep-value opportunity in the U.S. refining sector, with the investment thesis centered on the restoration of its Martinez refinery and the earnings power of its highly complex refining system.

Read More: 15 AI Stocks That Are Quietly Making Investors Rich

Read More: Undervalued AI Stock Poised For Massive Gains: 10000% Upside Potential

Following years of operational disruptions, Martinez has returned to full capacity, restoring production from one of the company’s highest-margin assets and positioning PBF to enter a cash-harvesting phase after an extended period of elevated maintenance spending.

The company operates a diversified portfolio of six refineries with over one million barrels per day of crude capacity, including facilities specifically configured to process heavy, sour crude. This creates a significant advantage as discounted Venezuelan crude returns to global markets, allowing PBF to capture wider feedstock differentials and improve refining margins. Additional upside comes from the company’s ability to convert a substantial portion of EBITDA into free cash flow due to its large tax assets and clean fuel credits, effectively shielding cash generation from taxes in the near term.

Despite these advantages, PBF trades at approximately 0.9x book value, a steep discount to larger refining peers that command multiples of 2.5x to 3.0x book value. The market appears to be valuing the company as a distressed operator rather than recognizing the replacement value of its refining assets, hidden land holdings, and excess power generation capacity.

Management is focused on balance sheet improvement, maintaining its dividend, and repurchasing shares, reflecting confidence in the company’s intrinsic value. Looking ahead, the combination of normalized operations, stronger crack spreads, advantaged crude sourcing, and shareholder returns could drive EBITDA materially above current consensus expectations. On the author’s estimates, PBF could generate free cash flow approaching its entire market capitalization over the next two years, creating a highly asymmetric risk-reward profile with substantial upside potential for long-term investors.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) by Alexandru Dragut in October 2024, which highlighted the company’s diversified refining network, strong free cash flow generation, renewable diesel exposure, and undervaluation relative to peers. PBF’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 19.93% since our coverage. Viper23 shares a similar view but emphasizes the Martinez refinery’s return to full capacity, advantaged heavy-crude processing, and significant free cash flow upside driven by improved margins and normalized operations.

PBF Energy Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 47 hedge fund portfolios held PBF at the end of the first quarter which was 41 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of PBF as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than PBF and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

Disclosure: None. 



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Inside the chaotic $300 million emergency bailout that saved a top crypto platform from total collapse

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Inside the chaotic $300 million emergency bailout that saved a top crypto platform from total collapse

Decentralized finance (DeFi) is recovering from a string of sophisticated exploits that have triggered an intense debate over whether public blockchain protocols can truly handle systemic risk.

The crisis peaked in April 2026, with the $292 million exploit of KelpDAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge triggered a devastating $8.45 billion deposit run on Aave, the world’s largest decentralized lending platform. The massive withdrawals occurred within 48 hours.

Stani Kulechov, founder and CEO of Aave Labs, defended Aave’s mathematical superiority over traditional finance at the Proof of Talk event in Paris last week. Rather than addressing the operational failures of a multi-million dollar liquidity crunch that nearly broke Aave’s insolvency shields, Kulechov pivoted to frame the massive capital flight as empirical proof of the network’s “resilience.”

“Aave’s existing V3 infrastructure has seen multiple market cycles,” he said, adding that “Aave has been really resilient during really turbulent times.”

However, a closer look at the April crisis reveals that Aave’s survival relied less on flawless autonomous design and more on a chaotic, human-led $300 million emergency bailout. The emergency recovery effort required a 25,000 ETH pledge from the Aave DAO and a personal 5,000 ETH ($8.4 million) contribution from Kulechov himself to stave off disaster.

Deflecting the blame

Kulechov separated core smart contract code from the external infrastructure failures impacting the wider market.

“When it comes to development as well… there are very few, actually any sort of issues in DeFi protocols’ smart contracts generally,” Kulechov argued. “They are actually third-party dependencies that are related to more traditional security that might have an impact across the DeFi space, as we’ve seen recently.”

While technically precise, the April hack began with an RPC-spoofing and DDoS attack targeting LayerZero’s verifier nodes on KelpDAO rather than a bug in Aave’s code. Risk analysts said that Kulechov’s defense side-steps a harsher reality.

Blockchain risk modeling firm LlamaRisk later revealed that the hackers used the exploit to mint worthless collateral, deposit it into Aave, and drain authentic wrapped Ether (wETH), leaving Aave V3 saddled with an estimated $123.7 million in bad debt. Furthermore, banking analysts at the Bank Policy Institute pointed out that Aave’s inadequate insurance exposed how DeFi platforms are vulnerable to bank runs in detriment of their users.

Blueprint for V4

Kulechov did concede that the architectural threat of contagion requires a complete overhaul. To prevent future bridge failures from triggering systemic deposit runs, he noted that Aave Labs is using its upcoming V4 upgrade to fundamentally restructure its risk management.

Kulechov explained that Aave Labs is using its upcoming V4 tech upgrade to entirely redesign risk management with the aim of preventing future bridge exploits from triggering deposit runs.

Kulechov explained that under the new version, a modular “hub-and-spoke” system will replace traditional token pooling, enabling the core protocol to autonomously levy localized risk premiums and freeze specific collateral lines before contagion can reach primary lending reserves.

“When you have a completely auditable and public system, anyone can actually inspect the code and also do different kinds of risk analysis based on that. I think that is the key to building resilient software,” he concluded.

​Whether institutional allocators will continue to overlook these multi-billion dollar “stress tests” while waiting for V4 to launch remains the defining question for DeFi’s mainstream future.



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Is Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. (IIPR) A Good Stock To Buy Now?

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Is Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. (IIPR) A Good Stock To Buy Now?


Is IIPR a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. on ARMR Report Be The Smart Money’s Substack by Bret Rosenthal. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on IIPR. Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.’s share was trading at $ 57.32 as of June 1st. IIPR’s trailing and forward P/E were 14.79 and 13.51 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Pixabay/Public domain

Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) is a specialized REIT that provides critical real estate infrastructure and capital to the cannabis industry through sale-leaseback transactions. Operating in a market where federal regulations continue to restrict access to traditional banking, the company has established a strong competitive position by financing operators while acquiring mission-critical cultivation and processing facilities.

Read More: 15 AI Stocks That Are Quietly Making Investors Rich

Read More: Undervalued AI Stock Poised For Massive Gains: 10000% Upside Potential

Its properties benefit from significant barriers to entry, as cultivation facilities require specialized HVAC, plumbing, and power systems, while licenses are often tied to specific locations, creating highly sticky tenant relationships. The regulatory environment also limits competition from larger industrial REITs, allowing IIPR to maintain an attractive niche within the sector.

While tenant distress has weighed on investor sentiment and contributed to recent revenue pressure, IIPR is actively repositioning its portfolio by replacing weaker operators with larger, better-capitalized multi-state operators. The company demonstrated continued demand for its assets by leasing nearly 400,000 square feet during the first quarter of 2026, including previously troubled properties. At the same time, management is diversifying revenue streams beyond cannabis through investments in life sciences, including its expanding relationship with IQHQ, which has already begun generating meaningful interest and dividend income.

The investment thesis is centered on the recovery and normalization of cash flows as distressed assets are re-tenanted, receivership situations are resolved, and property turnovers are completed. Supported by low 13% leverage, $176.6 million of liquidity, and ongoing efforts to strengthen the balance sheet, IIPR remains financially resilient despite industry challenges. As operational headwinds ease and diversification initiatives gain momentum, the company offers investors a high-yielding, cash-generative platform with upside from both improving fundamentals and long-term growth opportunities.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) by Steve Wagner in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s resilient industrial real estate platform, strong leasing spreads, disciplined capital recycling strategy, and conservative balance sheet supporting steady earnings growth. STAG’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 11% since our coverage. Bret Rosenthal shares a similar view but emphasizes IIPR’s specialized real estate moat, tenant recovery efforts, and upside from cash flow normalization and portfolio diversification.

Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 16 hedge fund portfolios held IIPR at the end of the first quarter which was 18 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of IIPR as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than IIPR and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

Disclosure: None. 



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PIPPIN jumps 27% as traders pile in: Is recovery finally underway?

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PIPPIN jumps 27% as traders pile in: Is recovery finally underway?


PIPPIN is finally giving holders something to celebrate.

After weeks of heavy selling pressure, the token delivered one of its strongest daily performances in recent months. The 27% rally pushed it among the market’s top gainers and reignited debate over whether the downtrend is finally losing momentum.

The move also attracted fresh participation.

Are traders paying attention again?

Trading activity surged alongside the price.

PIPPIN’s trading volume nearly doubled to $10.48 million over the past 24 hours, indicating that traders actively participated in the rally.

That marked a notable shift for a token that had largely disappeared from many traders’ watchlists during its decline.

Increased volume does not guarantee a sustained recovery. However, it suggested interest in PIPPIN was beginning to return. That shift set up a closer look at trader positioning.

PIPPIN Trading Volume
Source: Santiment

What are PIPPIN traders betting on?

The futures market has become increasingly bullish.

According to Coinalyze data, long positions accounted for roughly 80% of total market exposure.

That imbalance suggested traders were positioning for further upside following the recent rebound.

The sharp increase in bullish exposure reflected growing confidence. Even so, whether that confidence proves correct remains uncertain. This left traders focused on whether momentum can survive beyond the initial rally.

PIPPIN long/short ratioPIPPIN long/short ratio
Source: Coinalyze

Can PIPPIN build on the momentum?

The latest surge was encouraging, but one strong session does not erase weeks of selling pressure.

The daily chart showed that PIPPIN continued trading below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Until buyers reclaim the 20-day EMA, the broader trend may continue favoring sellers.

PIPPIN price analysisPIPPIN price analysis
Source: TradingView

What matters now is whether demand remains strong after the excitement cools. If trading activity stays elevated and bullish sentiment holds, PIPPIN could reclaim more lost ground.

For now, the market’s tone has changed noticeably.

Just a week ago, traders were asking how much lower PIPPIN could fall. Now, attention has shifted toward whether a recovery is finally taking shape.


Final Summary

  • PIPPIN surged 27%, making it one of the strongest-performing tokens over the past day.
  • Trading volume nearly doubled to $10.48 million, signaling renewed market participation.



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A forehead tattoo typo became a $600,000 crypto token, revealing the dark side of memecoin craze

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A forehead tattoo typo became a $600,000 crypto token, revealing the dark side of memecoin craze


Memecoin issuance platform Pump.fun’s new bounty product has produced its first controversy.

A user posting as Arivu on X said he completed a Pump.fun GO bounty last week that asked someone to tattoo the ticker “$boutywork” on their forehead and provide video proof. The task appeared to reference a token called $Bountywork, but the bounty description itself used the misspelled version “$boutywork.”

Arivu said he followed the task exactly.

“Guys I have followed everything exactly what the name mentioned in the line,” he wrote on X, adding that it was not his mistake because he tattooed the exact name mentioned by the bounty creator. “Please i gave my life,” he wrote.

The typo then became the market.

A Solana token using the ticker BOUTYWORK began trading on PumpSwap, rising to an over $600,000 market cap shortly after going live. It grabbed over $3.5 million in volume in 24 hours, 2,630 holders and roughly $43,000 of liquidity.

Arivu later posted that he had received $20,000, but from the trading fee of a token someone had launched. He shared the token address and thanked users, saying they had changed his life.

‘Pay anyone to do anything’

Pump.fun GO, announced last week, that it will let users create and complete bounties for almost any task. The company pitched it as a way to “pay anyone to do anything,” a line that sounds like internet fun (and most of the bounties are light-hearted dares) until the task becomes more exploitive, such as permanent body modifications.

The backlash on the new platform came quickly.

One X user claimed to have spoken with the tattoo shop and alleged that the person who got the tattoo may have been exploited by someone else trying to profit from the token’s price rally. A phone call to the tattoo shop made by CoinDesk went unanswered twice.

Nikita Bier, the widely-followed head of product at X, was more blunt:

“It’s sad that all the rich people left crypto and it’s now the entire industry is just teenagers in America forcing poor people to do shameful things.”

The tattoo was not the only task pushing Pump.fun GO beyond normal memecoin theater.

Other open bounties reviewed by CoinDesk showed how widespread the dares are. Some were silly internet dares, such as one that asked users to beat a watermelon-eating challenge in under 60 seconds for a reward pool of about $93.

Another offered about $663 for people to go to Los Angeles’ Skid Row, a 50-block neighborhood that contains one of the largest homeless populations known for its drug markets and extreme poverty, and interview two homeless people on camera about who they voted for.

But some started to turn dangerous.

One bounty asked people to drink a whole bottle of alcohol while promoting a token, with videos showing multiple submissions of users appearing to chug bottles in about a minute.

Another offered about $266 for someone to shave their head while screaming “Jobcoin.”

That is where the exploitative nature of memecoin frenzy shows up.

Pump.fun GO turns attention into a bounty, the bounty into content, and the content into a token trade. The person doing the stunt may get a small payout. The creator can launch a coin around it and capture far more if the market catches on.

The more attention something gets, the more profit it could potentially generate.

To be clear, Pump.fun has no role in the types of streams users choose to create, and it has an active moderation team that takes down dark or malicious content. Pump has been moderating platform activity since it started.

CoinDesk has reached out to Pump.fun for comments.

However, this isn’t the first time Pump.fun has found itself embroiled in controversial social experiments.

Previously, the platform had live streaming videos ranging from extreme dark humor to dark behavior, all in an effort to pump their tokens to a few million dollars in market capitalization.

At the time when some of these streams went live, several videos that emerged, including suicidal streams, death threats and a man locked up in his toilet continuously, were disturbing, to say the least.

And that makes for the uncomfortable part of this story.

On one side, this is the wild and wacky side of crypto internet: a typo, a bounty, a Solana token, a viral photo and a chart that goes vertical before most people understand what happened.

On the other hand, when crypto is reeling from a bear market and trying to be taken seriously by the masses, such stunts show how quickly memecoin incentives can hold back crypto’s reputation as a serious contender for everyday financial rails.



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There’s Still Time to Invest in Lumentum’s Optical Networking Momentum

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There’s Still Time to Invest in Lumentum’s Optical Networking Momentum


Earlier this week, shares of Lumentum (LITE) rallied from about $806 to $1,049. Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang praised Marvel (MRVL), a maker of optical components, as the next potential trillion-dollar company. Not only did that spark a massive rally in Marvell shares, but it also sparked a rally in other optical-component stocks, like LITE.

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Investors are rushing to buy optical networking companies, like LITE, because they’ve become an essential part of the artificial intelligence boom. That’s because optical networking, which transmits data as pulses of light, can deliver far more bandwidth and higher speeds than traditional copper wiring. In addition, Nvidia announced a $2 billion multi-year agreement with LITE in March to help accelerate the adoption of advanced optical technologies. Together with Lumentum, Nvidia is advancing the world’s most sophisticated silicon photonics to build the next generation of gigawatt-scale AI factories,” said Jensen Huang, as quoted in a company press release.

More News from Barchart

The AI Boom Could Spark a $154 Billion Optical Networking Opportunity

According to Goldman Sachs, optical networking is quickly becoming the next hot trend for the AI boom, as demand drives the need for faster data exchange and lower latency. In fact, “Networking is the next frontier in AI infrastructure, poised to enhance computing capability through seamless data exchange and low latency,” as quoted by Economic Times.

The firm added that the total addressable market could increase from about $15 billion in 2026 to nearly $154 billion by 2028. In addition, the market is also seeing a massive supply-demand issue. For example, Nvidia wants suppliers to increase indium phosphide laser capacity by 20x through 2030. “Training clusters increasingly require tens of thousands of GPUs connected with ultra-fast optical interconnects so data can move with minimal latency. Copper cables simply cannot keep up at scale,” according to Rosenblatt Securities.

To help secure capacity, Nvidia committed $2 billion to companies like LITE.

Lumentum Highly Favored as Demand Exceeds Supply

In its most recent quarter, the company posted adjusted EPS of $2.37, as compared to estimates of $2.27. GAAP EPS of $1.50 was above estimates of $1.43. Revenue, up about 90% year-over-year (YOY) at $808.4 million, was below estimates of $810 million. It posted an adjusted gross margin of 47.9%, which was above estimates of 45%. Moving forward, thanks to demand exceeding supply, the company expects revenue to range from $960 million to $1.01 billion. The midpoint is $980 million, which is far greater than the expected $936 million. It expects EPS to range from $2.85 to $3.05. That midpoint of $2.95 is better than the estimates of $2.75.

What Do Analysts Say About LITE Stock?

Analysts at Needham reiterated a “Buy” rating on LITE with a $1,040 price target, citing it as a “top pick.” Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $900 from $710 with an “Equal Weight” rating.

Of the 21 analysts covering the LITE stock, 14 have a “Strong Buy” rating, two have a “Moderate Buy” rating, and five have a “Hold” rating. The mean target price of $1,111.55 implies 17.6% potential upside from current levels. Meanwhile, the high-end target of $1,400 implies as much as 48.14% possible growth from here.

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On the date of publication, Ian Cooper did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com



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