Solana has been bearish for 10 months in a row: Can SOL still make a comeback?

Solana’s 2026 cycle has, so far, been one of its weakest on record.

From a technical perspective, SOL closed July down 1.1%, printing its 10th consecutive monthly red candle. That means since the October breakdown, SOL hasn’t managed a single strong monthly close, leaving HODLers who bought near the $250 cycle top deep underwater.

As a result, the $60 region is becoming an increasingly critical long-term support level.

On-chain, however, the price weakness still hasn’t translated into weaker fundamentals. As the chart below shows, Solana activated SIMD-0286 on the 29th of July, raising the compute limit from 60 to 100 million.

In other words, the network now has more room to handle demand spikes without affecting network activity. 

Notably, the upgrade has also eased fee pressure. Since SIMD-0286 was activated, the 90th percentile transaction fee has fallen 30%, from 29,800 to 20,800 lamports, pointing to better throughput and improved capital efficiency across the network. 

Interestingly, Token Terminal data shows Solana processed 8.7 billion transactions in July, its highest monthly transaction count in four months.

In essence, while Solana [SOL] continues to struggle on the price chart, on-chain activity is moving in the opposite direction, suggesting the network is becoming stronger.

According to AMBCrypto, this couldn’t have come at a better time. 

Why Solana’s on-chain strength is hard to ignore 

Solana’s improving fundamentals are now starting to align with a bullish technical setup.

According to one analyst, SOL is forming the same breakout-and-retest structure that has historically preceded its strongest rallies. In 2021, the pattern was followed by a 2,500% move, while the 2023 setup led to a 3,600% rally.

The analyst argues that SOL is once again holding the same high-timeframe support, suggesting the market could be building a similar structure for the 2026-2027 cycle.

Notably, this is where the chart below becomes important. Historically, August and September have been Bitcoin’s weakest months, increasing the odds of capital rotating into high-beta altcoins.

Against this backdrop, the SOL/BTC pair continues to chop below 0.002. A decisive breakout from this range could mark the beginning of a broader trend reversal.

In that context, Solana’s on-chain fundamentals become difficult to ignore. 

The SIMD-0286 upgrade has improved network efficiency, transaction activity is back at a four-month high, and SOL continues to hold a historically important technical structure. These factors suggest Solana may be quietly building the foundation for its next major move. 

Combined with the ongoing SOL/BTC consolidation and Bitcoin entering its historically weaker August-September period, the setup for a potential rotation cycle is starting to take shape.

If momentum shifts back toward altcoins, SOL/BTC could become a key catalyst for Solana’s trend reversal in the coming months.

Final Summary