The crypto market is closing out the week on a constructive note, with bitcoin adding as much as 1.1% since midnight UTC to $65,760 as the broader market held its ground despite a macro backdrop that should be applying far more pressure.
Brent crude futures are trading at $97.66 per barrel, the highest since mid-May, as the Iran conflict shows no sign of de-escalating. While previous oil spikes have rattled risk assets including crypto, digital assets are broadly green this morning.
Ether (ETH) mirrored bitcoin’s gain, rising as much as 1.6%, while the likes of HYPE and FET rose more than 2%.
Traditional markets are muted, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures both marginally positive and gold holding above $4,000. The Dollar Index has edged slightly lower.
Derivatives positioning
- Market churn dominates activity: Volume increased by 11% to $165 billion in 24 hours while open interest (OI) held steady at around $116 billion. This shows a market that’s seen churn rather than positional interest.
- Bearish buildup in dogecoin: DOGE futures OI continues to rise and is nearing 16 billion tokens, the most since October. The continued gains come as DOGE’s spot price remains under pressure after falling to the lowest since November 2023 on Thursday. The combination of rising open interest alongside a drop in price is said to confirm the downtrend and signal trader interest in shorting the falling market.
- Mixed signals from ether: OI in ether futures is rising as well, currently at 14.53 million ETH, the highest since June 7. Other indicators paint a mixed picture with positive funding rates still pointing to bullish sentiment while the negative 24-hour CVD indicates that bears are leading the price aciton by shorting at market orders rather than placing limit orders.
- Broad-based bear leadership: With the exception of TRX and CRO, most tokens, including BTC, have negative 24-hour CVD.
- Volatility declines: There is good news for the bulls from the BVIV index, which measures BTC’s 30-day implied volatility. The measure has declined by 3% since midnight to 39%, halting a five-day streak of advances. Ether’s EVIV is under pressure too.
- Options cluster: In the Deribit-listed bitcoin options market, a massive $5 billion open interest cluster has formed at $70,000-$72,000 options, mainly driven by bullish bets, or call options. Volume rankings also show a bias for upside with calls at strikes $77,000 and $80,000 featuring in the list alongside other calls.
Token talk
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) led the altcoin market for the second consecutive session, rising 2.4% to $58.93 as it rebuilds with a series of higher lows since its July pullback from record highs.
- AI tokens FET and NEAR posted gains of 2.23% and 1.38%, respectively, offering tentative signs of stabilization after weeks of underperformance, while added 1.89% to extend one of the more consistent runs in the DeFi sector this month.
- gave back 2.13% of Thursday’s 12% surge, a familiar pattern for the Trump family-linked token, which remains highly susceptible to sharp reversals due to thin liquidity.
- Lighter (LIT) fell a further 1.32%, extending a slide that has now unwound close to 20% from its July peak as profit-taking continues following its 200%-plus rally between May and early July.
- The broader 24-hour picture tells a more cautious story, with WLFI, AVAX, HBAR and SUI all down between 4% and 10% over the past day, a reminder that the intraday recovery masks lingering weakness across a portion of the altcoin market.
