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Table of Contents
Key Takeaways
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More than 2,600 conduit and SBLL CMBS loans mature within nine months, carrying a balance above $100B.
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Multifamily shows a 7.5% distress rate in the pool, above retail at 3.5% and hotel at 4.4%.
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Mixed-use, retail and office loans face resets of roughly 172 to 178 bps, even where loans look clean.
More than 2,600 conduit and SBLL CMBS loans mature over the next nine months. Their combined outstanding balance tops $100B. The balance-weighted distress rate across that pool is 5.55%, according to CRED iQ. That average conceals more than it reveals.
Multifamily Breaks Its Safer Asset Reputation
Office carries the highest distress rate of any major property type in the maturing pool, at 9.4% on $23.86B. That much is expected. Multifamily is the surprise. At $5.01B of maturing balance, it shows a 7.5% distress rate. That sits above retail at 3.5% and hotel at 4.4%. Multifamily is conventionally treated as the safer bet, especially against retail’s long-running death of the mall narrative. In this cohort, the ranking flips.
The Details
Distress rates describe what has already gone wrong. The refinancing math describes what is coming. Loans maturing in this window carry an average note rate of 5.44%. Loans originated between May and August of this year priced at a loan-weighted 6.58%. That is a gap of roughly 114 bps. It applies whether or not a loan is flagged as distressed. Mixed-use faces the widest reset at 178 bps, followed by retail at 173 bps and office at 172 bps. Hotel faces the smallest gap at 32 bps, since those loans already priced close to today’s market.
A Wall Concentrated in Gateway Markets
Just 10 of the 371 metro areas in the data account for 57.8% of the full $87.8B balance. New York, Newark and Jersey City alone represent $15.87B, or 18.1% of the national total. Los Angeles follows at $7.81B and San Francisco at $4.70B. Individual loans are large enough to move those numbers on their own. A single Honolulu retail property carries a $1.73B loan maturing in June 2027, the largest in the entire wall. A $1.69B office loan on Binney Street in Cambridge matures in May 2027.
Why It Matters
Shadow distress is the real exposure this data surfaces. A performing loan can still face a materially higher payment after refinancing. That pressure matters as AI-driven leasing reshapes major technology office markets and strengthens demand for high-quality space.
