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Crypto Long & Short: Putting the bitcoin sizing question to the test

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Crypto Long & Short: Putting the bitcoin sizing question to the test

What the regimes reveal

Splitting the window into bull, bear and sideways markets by the 200-day moving average sharpens the picture considerably. In bull regimes both approaches beat the plain 60/40, though the trend version retained much of the upside on a more controlled path. Bear regimes produced the widest gap. Spot exposure transmitted more of crypto’s drawdown into the broader portfolio, while the trend sleeve, designed to step away from persistent downtrends, kept losses shallower and the ride more survivable.

Sideways markets deserve more attention than they usually receive. Range-bound conditions, where prices churn without a clear direction, offer no strong trend to reward conviction and no clean rebound to rescue poor timing. Through those stretches, direct bitcoin exposure struggled to justify its added volatility, while the rules-based sleeve had a better chance of avoiding risk without reward. Real portfolios spend a great deal of time in exactly these noisy, indecisive transitions.

The forward case

Three structural forces will shape how these choices play out. The post-ETF market is more flow-sensitive, so demand shocks travel quickly and can amplify both trends and reversals. Supply growth is anchored by the 2024 halving and will keep shrinking. Regulatory clarity in major jurisdictions continues to separate investible projects from speculative noise, raising the premium on transparent benchmarks and institutional-grade products.



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Micron (MU) Has More to Gain Than Nvidia (NVDA) Has to Lose From Samsung’s 2028 Warning

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Micron (MU) Has More to Gain Than Nvidia (NVDA) Has to Lose From Samsung’s 2028 Warning


Samsung said on July 30 that memory shortages could worsen in 2027 and persist through 2028. The warning strengthened the pricing outlook for Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) while exposing a potential supply constraint for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA). Micron shares jumped 18.4% that day as Samsung’s report revived confidence in the memory cycle.

Samsung has signed supply agreements with the five largest global data-center companies and is nearing deals with five more. It aims to place about two-thirds of its longer-term memory output under contracts lasting at least five years, typically with upfront payments and price floors. Customers are paying for supply certainty before new fabrication capacity can materially relieve the shortage. Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) has already moved in the same direction. On June 24, it disclosed 16 strategic customer agreements covering roughly 20% of its DRAM volume and one-third of its NAND volume through 2030. The agreements contain take-or-pay commitments, while the largest generally include floor prices that Micron says would protect gross margins above previous cycle peaks.

The other side of scarcity runs through Nvidia’s systems. On March 16, Micron said it had begun volume shipments of HBM4 designed for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform. Advanced memory must arrive alongside processors, packaging, and networking components before demand can become completed systems. Tight HBM allocations could therefore slow shipments even when accelerator orders remain strong. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has some protection through multiple suppliers. Samsung counts Nvidia among its HBM customers and expects its HBM4 revenue to more than triple in the third quarter, which could make the constraint manageable.

Micron (MU) Has More to Gain Than Nvidia (NVDA) Has to Lose From Samsung’s 2028 Warning

Portogas D Ace/Shutterstock.com

The data supports staying constructive on Micron, although the 18.4% jump makes chasing the stock less attractive. Long-term commitments give Micron more pricing visibility than in previous memory cycles, while scarcity could strengthen prices on uncontracted output. The limitation is that HBM, conventional DRAM, and NAND can loosen at different rates, and new capacity or better manufacturing yields could weaken pricing before 2028. For Nvidia, the shortage warrants monitoring but does not justify a bearish shift. It threatens deployment timing more directly than demand, and supplier diversification reduces the risk that one producer becomes a single point of failure.

Insider Monkey’s database showed 154 hedge funds with Micron positions at the end of Q1 2026, up from 137 in Q4 2025. At the July 15 settlement, 36,211,849 MU shares were sold short, equal to 3.21% of float and 0.8 day of trading volume. The 14.34% increase from the prior report may reflect Micron’s rally and the memory industry’s history of reversing when capacity catches up. The pre-warning short position remained far from crowded and did not signal broad bearishness.



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Ready for Growth? Take These Strategic Next Steps for the Fastest, Lowest-Risk ROI

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Ready for Growth? Take These Strategic Next Steps for the Fastest, Lowest-Risk ROI


Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

Key Takeaways

  • Companies that say they’re ready to grow are usually just ready to spend — and scaling a weak strategic foundation only accelerates its weaknesses.
  • Real growth comes from six strategic moves, not bigger budgets: mapping the true customer journey, sharpening personas, investing in advocacy, de-risking positioning, protecting differentiators and enforcing trade-offs.

Your business is ready for growth. You are past the launch phase. You have hired your first employees. You are ready to grow monthly revenue. But how? What are the next steps with the best ROI for the right kind of growth?

Many companies, new and long-established alike, say they are ready to grow, ready to hire more and ready to open a new office or expand into a new market. Few are actually prepared for it.

Being unprepared for growth is rarely a matter of effort. Growth stalls because of misdirected investment — too many companies spend on ads, sales pushes and visibility campaigns without first repairing the strategic foundation underneath.

If your company is serious about growth, and not just activity for the sake of hard work, these six moves will deliver the fastest and most sustainable return.

Secure the base with a customer journey map that reflects how buyers actually decide

Growth accelerates when friction disappears. Most customer journey maps are built on internal assumptions rather than real customer behavior. Even ideal customer personas do not move in a straight line, and your strategy should not assume they do.

A useful journey map accounts for continual market disruption, the decision moments that matter most and how those moments shift over time. It captures current buying patterns, points of friction and capacity gaps that slow conversion from consideration to purchase.

Ask yourself where prospects drop off — and how those drop-offs are quietly capping the ROI of every dollar you spend on marketing, brand and PR.

Clarify your customer personas or keep guessing

If you are talking to everyone, you are persuading no one. Personas that are too generic — or that ignore the emotional drivers behind real decisions — produce generic messaging. And generic brands do not scale.

The most valuable personas go beyond geography, buying power and reachability. They surface the behavioral and emotional drivers that move a customer from “nice to have” to “cannot live without.” Brands that invest in understanding those drivers waste less spend and sharpen their targeting, messaging and positioning.

Invest in advocacy, not just more acquisition

Your fastest growth channel is already paying you. Existing, satisfied customers are one of the most undervalued growth assets in most companies. Yet too many brands overspend on acquisition while under-investing in the customers who could sell for them. A Google review or the occasional testimonial does not count as advocacy.

Real advocacy starts with a system. Identify which customers are the most credible ambassadors for your brand. Figure out what would motivate them to advocate publicly. Then design an advocacy program with incentives that align with — rather than undermine — their credibility.

De-risk your market position before you scale it

Scaling a weak position just accelerates failure. Growth amplifies whatever already exists — strengths and gaps. Before you invest more in acquisition, ask whether your positioning is genuinely clear or simply convenient to your current operations. Would the market miss your brand if it disappeared tomorrow?

De-risking means stress-testing four things: relevance, differentiation, value and credibility. Brands that skip this step tend to confuse awareness with demand — and pay for the mistake at scale.

Protect your real differentiators before competitors copy them

If it is not protected, it is temporary. Most brands assume they are differentiated until a competitor or new entrant says the same thing, only louder. True differentiation is more than a claim. It is a position that can be clearly articulated, is hard to replicate and is reinforced across every touchpoint in the customer journey.

If your value proposition can be copied in a week, it is not defensible. The goal is ownership of the position, not dominance of the awareness game.

Enforce strategic trade-offs

The most important question in any growth plan is also the hardest: Where do we say no?

Strategic trade-offs sharpen positioning, create clarity inside and outside the company and ultimately drive growth. Brands that scale well are intentional about what they will not do. They focus on the efforts that reinforce what the brand is for, and resist the distractions that dilute it.

Trying to be the brand for everyone reduces your capacity to be the brand for anyone.

Growth is a strategic decision, not a spending one

The brands that scale fastest grow with intention, guided by a winning strategy. Real growth requires alignment between customer experience, clearly defined positioning and defensible differentiation.

Growth does not start with spending more. It starts with deciding better.

Key Takeaways

  • Companies that say they’re ready to grow are usually just ready to spend — and scaling a weak strategic foundation only accelerates its weaknesses.
  • Real growth comes from six strategic moves, not bigger budgets: mapping the true customer journey, sharpening personas, investing in advocacy, de-risking positioning, protecting differentiators and enforcing trade-offs.

Your business is ready for growth. You are past the launch phase. You have hired your first employees. You are ready to grow monthly revenue. But how? What are the next steps with the best ROI for the right kind of growth?

Many companies, new and long-established alike, say they are ready to grow, ready to hire more and ready to open a new office or expand into a new market. Few are actually prepared for it.

Being unprepared for growth is rarely a matter of effort. Growth stalls because of misdirected investment — too many companies spend on ads, sales pushes and visibility campaigns without first repairing the strategic foundation underneath.



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Coldcard hack could lift demand for regulated bitcoin products, analysts say

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Coldcard hack could lift demand for regulated bitcoin products, analysts say

The exploit, which researchers say stemmed from a flaw in the wallet’s firmware, has resulted in at least 1,816 bitcoin, worth about $114 million, being drained from more than 5,200 addresses since July 30, underscoring the risks even self-custodied assets face when wallet security is compromised.

FRNT Financial echoed that view, saying the exploit exposed a key tradeoff in self-custody. While many bitcoin holders prefer to control their own assets, they still place their trust in the hardware and software used to generate private keys.

“The reaction within the BTC community to the exploit was one of heartbreak,” FRNT wrote in a Wednesday report, noting many affected users had followed long-standing best practices around self-custody.

The firm compared the incident to the 2023 “Milk Sad” exploit, in which flawed key generation led to the theft of roughly $900,000 in digital assets. Rather than undermining self-custody altogether, FRNT said it expects the latest breach to spur wallet providers to strengthen their products as users demand greater security assurances.

For investors unwilling to accept the operational risks of managing private keys, the growing availability of spot bitcoin ETFs provides an increasingly attractive alternative, FRNT said.

Read more: Coldcard hack sparks a self-custody security overhaul: Cory Klippsten



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Bitcoin’s biggest bear trap of this cycle forming? The case for BTC’s $75K breakout

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Bitcoin’s biggest bear trap of this cycle forming? The case for BTC's $75K breakout


Bitcoin might be setting up one of the biggest liquidation cascades of this cycle.

From a technical lens, BTC has chopped around $60k for over two months, while extreme positive Funding Rates show that traders continue to pile into long positions.

The question now is whether this positioning reflects a strategic setup. Are bulls front-running something the broader market hasn’t priced in yet?

Recent data from Lookonchain suggests that positioning may be getting ahead of itself. In a post on X, Lookonchain flagged a “newly” created wallet that deposited 2.44 million USDC into Hyperliquid to open a 40x short on 1,600 BTC, worth roughly $102.6 million.

The position carries a liquidation price of $64,888.97.

BTC
Source: X

Why does this matter? While most of the market remains aggressively long, a newly created wallet is taking the opposite side with significant leverage. This creates a high-stakes positioning battle.

If BTC breaks lower, crowded longs could unwind quickly, triggering a liquidation cascade. 

That makes Bitcoin’s next move even more critical. Notably, one trader recently flagged that large sell walls have appeared between $64k and $65k, with sellers aggressively defending the range.

If Bitcoin [BTC] continues to get rejected there, it would reinforce the bearish setup and increase the odds of a long squeeze. 

In this context, the trader’s 40x BTC short starts to look less like a random bet and more like a calculated position. However, with BTC already trading near $64k, the trade is walking a thin line.

Naturally, the real question now is whether Bitcoin is preparing for a flush or setting up one of the biggest traps of the cycle.

Bitcoin’s bearish setup could become the fuel for the next rally 

Amid bearish sentiment and rising sell orders, shorting BTC seems like the obvious trade.

As Santiment reported, Bitcoin sentiment has dropped into historically deep fear levels. The positive-to-negative commentary ratio fell to 0.54 since the 31st of July, meaning bearish BTC discussions are nearly 2x as common as bullish ones.

However, when compared with actual on-chain activity, a major divergence appears to be forming between market sentiment and what is happening beneath the surface.

Notably, the biggest divergence may be coming from the macro side. As the chart below shows, rate hike expectations have cooled sharply, falling to 48% from above 65% just a week ago.

At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs have seen no major selling pressure in August, while improving confidence around the U.S. economy is keeping risk appetite alive among investors. 

BitcoinBitcoin
Source: Polymarket

Taken together, strong ETF positioning and a cooling macro backdrop could create a powerful setup for Bitcoin’s Q3 outlook, challenging the bearish August narrative. 

Against this backdrop, BTC’s current weakness could turn into a trap for traders betting on more downside. In other words, Bitcoin could be forming a bear trap, with $75k emerging as the key upside target heading into the end of Q3. 


Final Summary



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Where Will Bitcoin Be in 3 Years?

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Where Will Bitcoin Be in 3 Years?


Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency, reached its record high of more than $126,000 last October. Today, it trades at about $64,000. That was a painful pullback, but it’s still up more than 120% over the past three years.

So will Bitcoin generate similar gains over the next three years? Let’s review its upcoming catalysts and challenges to see where it might be headed.

Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a “Double Down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same “Total Conviction” signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

Image source: Getty Images.

What happened to Bitcoin over the past three years?

Three years ago, Bitcoin was only trading at about $29,000. But in January 2024, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved its first spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs), enabling retail and institutional investors to invest in Bitcoin without using crypto wallets.

In April 2024, Bitcoin’s mining rewards were cut in half in its latest four-year halving. That reduction made Bitcoin even harder to mine profitably. More than 20 million of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million tokens have already been mined. That increased mining difficulty and scarcity made Bitcoin more comparable to gold than other smaller cryptocurrencies.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve — which had raised its benchmark rates 11 consecutive times in 2022 and 2023 — finally cut its rates three times in 2024. That monetary easing, which supports the notion that Bitcoin will rise as fiat currencies become less valuable, also drove more investors to buy more cryptocurrencies and other higher-growth investments.

In 2025, three more rate cuts, expectations for additional rate cuts in 2026, and the Trump Administration’s crypto-friendly policies all drove Bitcoin to its record high. But this year, all of those tailwinds dissipated. The Fed kept its rates unchanged as inflation heated up again, macro headwinds drove investors back toward more conservative investments, and the closely watched CLARITY Act to regulate cryptocurrencies remains stalled in the Senate.

What will happen to Bitcoin over the next three years?

Those headwinds chilled the crypto market and sent Bitcoin lower, but three catalysts could easily drive it higher over the next three years. First, Bitcoin’s price will likely rise again ahead of its next halving in 2028. Second, the passage of the CLARITY Act and other crypto-friendly legislation should draw more institutional investors back to Bitcoin. Lastly, the broader crypto market should heat up once inflation cools and the Fed starts cutting rates again.

Bitcoin will also likely gain more momentum among institutional, corporate, and government investors as it becomes a universal hedge against expansionary monetary policies. That increased adoption should reinforce Bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold.”

I believe these tailwinds could drive Bitcoin to new highs over the next three years. It will be a bumpy ride, but its long-term strengths easily outweigh its near-term weaknesses.

Should you buy stock in Bitcoin right now?

Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $396,758!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,300,820!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 939% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of August 5, 2026.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Where Will Bitcoin Be in 3 Years? was originally published by The Motley Fool



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Nomura’s Laser Digital backs ZIGChain for onchain private credit push in UAE

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Nomura’s Laser Digital backs ZIGChain for onchain private credit push in UAE

Crypto is in a tough spot right now, and the effects of a down market are being felt across the industry. In February of this year, Nomura tightened risk limits at Laser Digital after crypto losses dragged down quarterly profit. This was read by the market as a retreat, but Nomura indicated it would be staying in crypto, just with a more conservative approach.

To this end, Laser Digital’s investment and partnership with ZigChain delivers a comprehensive risk framework and governance across a pipeline of institutional onchain vault products, according to a statement.

Rafay Gadit said the private credit market in the Middle East faces a two-sided problem.

“Firstly, those who need money cannot raise it from the normal banks, and those who have money don’t know those opportunities exist,” he said. “And even if they know, it’s only approachable through very large funds that have extremely high fees and barriers to entry. We are democratizing that.”

Dr. Jez Mohideen, Co-founder and CEO, Laser Digital, said his firm has been watching the private credit category, and while the opportunity in onchain finance is real, execution risk has been consistently underestimated.

“ZIG Markets brings regional depth and an origination track record, and as an investor and partner, our role is to apply the same higher standards of institutional risk frameworks we use across our broader offerings,” Mohideen said. “The shared vision remains to make the next generation of asset management products accessible to those moving serious institutional capital.”



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