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Quick Read
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SNDK shares have surged 525% YTD as SanDisk and Kioxia commit $31 billion to NAND expansion backed by $91 billion in contracted customer demand.
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CEO David Goeckeler says revenue visibility stretched from 3 months a year ago to over 4 years, protected by $16.5 billion in customer financial guarantees.
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SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) and Japanese partner Kioxia said this week they will invest more than $31 billion in Japan over six years to expand NAND flash capacity for the AI era, including roughly $11.3 billion for a new facility at Kioxia’s Kitakami plant to produce jointly developed tenth-generation BiCS Flash.
This is a joint figure covering both partners, and the company’s share has not been disclosed. The plan leans on Japanese government support, so treat it as a proposal at this stage. The reason it matters is that this is a NAND bet, while most AI headlines focus on high-bandwidth memory. NAND is used in enterprise SSDs that store training data, checkpoints, and inference results. Shares closed at $1,484.98 on Friday, up 525.57% year to date, so the market has already priced in significant upside.
Why This Bet Looks Different From Past NAND Cycles
Memory has burned investors before because capacity gets built into peak pricing and arrives during a glut. That history is the single most important context for this deal.
What differs now is that SanDisk is locking down demand before pouring concrete. Management said it has signed new business model agreements with eight data center and edge customers, with a weighted average duration of over four years.
CEO David Goeckeler put the visibility bluntly: “A year ago, we were talking about visibility in this business of three months,” and now the company has “over four years of visibility.”
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The backlog is real. Remaining performance obligation stood at $59.8 billion and, including two agreements signed after quarter-end, reached $91.1 billion, backed by $16.5 billion in customer financial guarantees. Total minimum expected NBM revenue at floor pricing is $93.9 billion. Those are contracted floor economics tied to fixed volumes.
Numbers Behind the Rally
Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue reached $8.96 billion, up 371.59% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $39.25 against a $33.28 estimate. Datacenter revenue rose 437% for the full year, and non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 84.6% from 26.4% a year earlier.
