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Fed Chair leads two-day meeting as fear grips markets

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Fed Chair leads two-day meeting as fear grips markets


Kevin Warsh is leading only his second meeting as Federal Reserve Chair, and this one is proving far less predictable than his first.

The Federal Open Market Committee‘s two-day July meeting began Tuesday and will conclude Wednesday, July 29, with an interest rate decision followed by a press conference. 

Unlike Warsh’s first meeting in June, when the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady was widely expected, this time markets are genuinely split on what happens next.

Related: Bitcoin traders brace for Fed’s rate call and inflation this week

Why this decision is so uncertain

Two conflicting forces are pulling the Fed in opposite directions. June’s inflation report showed prices cooling to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, giving the central bank room to hold rates steady. 

But renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with the breakdown of an earlier ceasefire, have pushed oil prices higher again, reviving concerns that energy costs could feed into broader inflation and force the Fed’s hand toward a hike instead.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a 70.6% probability that the Fed holds rates steady in the 350 to 375 basis point range, versus a 29.4% probability of a 25 basis point hike. 

Those odds have shifted meaningfully over the past month; a month ago, the market gave a hold just a 70.1% probability versus 29.9% for a hike, showing the uncertainty has persisted rather than resolved.

Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

Warsh is running the Fed differently

Though only in his second meeting as chair, Warsh has already begun reshaping how the Fed operates. He has signaled he intends to provide significantly less forward guidance than his predecessors, a shift that has visibly unsettled parts of the market that had grown used to clearer signals ahead of rate decisions. 

He has also stood up several new task forces to examine potential changes to how the Fed conducts its business going forward.

Trending on TheStreet Roundtable:

Data from Santiment Intelligence, an onchain intelligence platform that also tracks social sentiment across crypto, shows how directly that uncertainty is showing up in trader conversation.

According to a July 28 post from Santiment on X:

“The July FOMC meeting runs July 28-29, with Kevin Warsh leading a crucial interest rate decision that will impact crypto markets. Traders are focused on whether the Fed holds steady again or surprises traders with a hike.” 

Santiment’s data tracks crypto social chatter specifically around three outcomes: rate hikes, rate cuts, and rates staying the same. 

The chart shows conversation around a hike spiking heavily on June 16, just ahead of Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as chair, alongside a smaller rise in discussion about possible rate cuts that same day. The Fed ultimately held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17. 

Source: Santiment Intelligence

Discussion then shifted toward the “rates staying the same” camp on June 23, following that meeting, before hike-related chatter began climbing again by July 13. As of July 28, that conversation has translated directly into market pricing, with traders now pricing in a 36% to 38% chance of a surprise hike.

Santiment noted that “crowd conviction can get loud right before it gets wrong, especially when traders are trying to price Fed uncertainty into Bitcoin,” a pointed reminder given how sharply hike fears spiked and then reversed around the June meeting. Banks broadly still expect a hold this time as well, since inflation pressure isn’t yet seen as decisive enough to justify a hike.

Crypto markets are already flinching

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are showing clear signs of caution heading into Wednesday’s decision. 

The total crypto market cap has dropped roughly 3% to $2.18 trillion, while Bitcoin recently fell to about $63,763. 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price at press time. Source: Decibel

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has slipped to 34, reflecting growing fear among traders. Large-cap altcoins including Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin are all down between 3% and 5%.

Related: Fed’s Kevin Warsh issues stark warning on 2008-style bailouts

This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jul 28, 2026, where it first appeared in the Federal Reserve & FOMC News section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.



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Robinhood Chain surpasses Solana on memecoins, RWA growth: Can it hold the lead?

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Robinhood Chain surpasses Solana on memecoins, RWA growth: Can it hold the lead?


Robinhood Chain has become a key Solana challenger on memecoin speculation and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization metas. 

According to on-chain data, the new Ethereum L2 surpassed PumpSwap (Solana’s core memecoin engine). Robinhood Launchpad’s weekly volume hit $1.23B, eclipsing PumpSwap’s $1.22B for the first time.

Worth noting that Robinhood Chain has only been live for about a month. However, a few memecoin projects, such as Cash Cat, exploded after its debut. This kicked off a memecoin FOMO in the L2. 

Robinhood
Source: Dune

But its clout goes beyond the memecoin mania. Its initial RWA vision seems to be playing out as well.

Robinhood sees strong RWA traction

Similarly, Robinhood Chain is now leading in tokenized stock asset holders, outpacing Solana [SOL]. According to Token Terminal data, the L2 had about 330K tokenized stock asset holders. Solana followed closely at 281K users. BNB Chain closed out the top 3 list with 214K holders. 

Robinhood Robinhood
Source: Token Terminal

However, dominating the number of tokenized stockholders does not translate to overall value held. 

Token Terminal data showed that Robinhood Chain dominance only translated to 1% of the +$2B held in the tokenized stock market. 

Robinhood chain RWARobinhood chain RWA
Source: Token Terminal

In other words, Robinhood Chain’s RWA adoption has been commendable. But its overall value of holdings was still lagging. It remains to be seen whether this will scale the value of its tokenized stock holdings due to its massive distribution channel. 

That said, as of writing, the memecoin craze seems to have cooled off a bit. The L2’s DEX volume dropped by nearly half from its monthly peak of $900M to about $500M. 

Whether the above on-chain traction will eventually boost the fintech’s stock, HOOD, remains to be seen. The chain has made a cumulative $3M since its debut. The figure may increase if the on-chain traction and its RWA bet play out.

Ahead of the Q2 earnings call, analyst consensus has remained bullish on HOOD stock. The analysts, led by Bernstein and Goldman Sachs, expect HOOD to hit $122. This implies a potential upside of 31% from the current value of $92.7. 

Robinhood chain Robinhood chain
Source: Market Beat

Final Summary

  • Robinhood Chain is challenging Solana on memecoin speculation and RWA dominance.
  • The L2 has generated $3M as analysts expect Robinhood’s stock, HOOD, to rally 31% to $122.



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SpaceX is a battleground Solana must win

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moneyvests
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SpaceX is a battleground Solana must win

The Cerebras Systems and SpaceX listings follow a period of months where the volume of RWAs onchain has been steadily multiplying, and traditional financial press has been covering how crypto derivatives platforms now allow traders to price commodities outside of market hours — weekends, holidays, and the 4PM-to-9:30AM dead zone.

Solana already has the speed, throughput, and cost structure to support these markets. Solana handles more daily transactions than all other blockchains combined. There is no version of this argument where someone credibly claims Solana can’t support high-frequency global derivatives trading. It obviously can. The gap is execution and focus. Hyperliquid has taken an early lead, not because they had better infrastructure, but because they were built specifically for derivatives traders. They shipped a product that was purpose-built for a specific user, and that specific user showed up.

The reality is that markets form where products are usable, liquid, and trusted, and not necessarily where infrastructure is strongest. CoinMarketCap is a graveyard of projects that hung their hats solely on technical advantages. Solana, despite its advantages, is not the default venue for this category, and that gap has been compounding.

Liquidity begets liquidity. Traders go where other traders already are. Every week that passes without a competitive Solana-native answer to the Hyperliquid trading experience is a week where the gravitational pull of the alternative gets harder to reverse.



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What smart people are saying about Trump’s ban on new Chinese humanoid robots

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What smart people are saying about Trump's ban on new Chinese humanoid robots


The Trump administration has banned the imports of new advanced robots from China.

VCG/VCG via Getty Images

  • The Trump administration has announced a ban on new Chinese humanoid robots entering the US.
  • The authorities say the robots pose “unacceptable safety risks” to national security.
  • Some policy pundits have voiced full-throated approval for the ban.

The Trump Administration’s crackdown on Chinese robots is getting mixed reactions.

On Tuesday, the Federal Communications Commission announced the administration’s ban on new imports of “advanced robotic devices” from China, including humanoid and quadrupeds. The ban also extends to China-made power inverters used in batteries and data centers.

The FCC’s Tuesday news release wrote that the ban was imposed because these robots “pose unacceptable safety risks to the national security of the United States.”

Robots that have already been brought to the US before the ban was announced will not be affected by it.

Here’s what smart people in policy, tech, and venture capital are saying about the ban.

Chris McGuire, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations

Responding to FCC Chair Brendan Carr’s X post about the ban, Chris McGuire said this was a “very, very big deal.”

McGuire is a senior fellow for China and emerging technology at the Council on Foreign Relations.

He said in his Tuesday X post that the ban will incentivize the US to shore up its robotics supply chains while “preventing China from flooding the US market with cheap robots that also pose national security risks (similar to Chinese connected vehicles).”

McGuire praised the tactic of imposing import bans on specific rapidly growing technologies from China that could pose national security risks to the US.

Rush Doshi, director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations

Rush Doshi, the director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations, called the ban “one of the most significant actions taken so far in support of the U.S. robotics ecosystem.”

Reposting Carr’s X post, Doshi compared the move to the FCC’s announcement last December regarding restrictions on new foreign-made drones.

“The FCC’s drone action was a shot in the arm for the domestic drone industry, and I think this has that same potential in robotics,” Doshi wrote.

Doshi was the deputy senior director for China and Taiwan on the National Security Council under former President Joe Biden.

Peter Harrell, visiting scholar at Georgetown Law School

Peter Harrell, a visiting scholar at Georgetown’s Institute of International Economic Law, called the ban an “important national security move,” adding that advanced robots collect vast amounts of data and are integrated into key industries.

“This should provide a substantial tailwind to U.S. and allied inverter and robot manufacturers,” Harrell wrote on X. He said the move will protect the US market and create space for its companies to expand.

Ramez Naam, founder of Planetary VC

In an X post on Tuesday, climate investor Ramez Naam described the new ban as a “double-edged sword.”

“Short term, the rest of the world will have access to better cheaper hum/quad robots than the US,” he wrote. “Longer term, with luck, US industry will thrive. But China will have advantage of a larger market indefinitely.”

He said that humanoid robots are a “terrible form factor” for warfare and are unlikely to affect defense. But the ban on quadrupeds, animal-like robots that walk on four legs, could have consequences for defense.

Justin Lopas, founder of Base Power

Justin Lopas, the founder of home battery system provider Base Power, gave a nod of support to the ban.

“For those in the know, this is a very big deal,” Lopas wrote on X.

The founder worked in manufacturing and mechanical engineering at SpaceX and Anduril before launching his company in 2023.

Read the original article on Business Insider



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TFI first look: truckload shines, LTL doesn’t keep up

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moneyvests
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TFI first look: truckload shines, LTL doesn’t keep up


TFI International’s flagship LTL operations in the second quarter were improved from a year ago by some metrics, weaker by other benchmarks, but it was the less-heralded truckload operations that really stood out.

Truckload revenue for TFI International (NYSE: TFII) was up from the second quarter of 2025 by 12.6%, adjusted EBITDA rose by 14.75%, and the operating ratio (OR) was up 400 basis points to 86.1%. Revenue per truck per week excluding fuel was up 21.6%.

Meanwhile, LTLs OR rose 100 basis points, its revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel–a key LTL benchmark–fell slightly, and its revenue per shipment excluding fuel was down 2.1%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 4.46%.

The adjusted EBITDA margin was 18% for LTL and 24.1% for truckload.

The overall picture for TFI as a whole, including a solid performance in logistics, was significantly stronger. Net income rose to $136.2 million from $98.2 million in the second quarter. Adjusted earnings per share climbed to $1.86 from $1.34 a year earlier.

A year ago at the halfway point of 2025, manufactured goods accounted for 17% of the company’s revenue, with retail leading the pack at 19%. But this year for the six months ended June 30, manufactured goods were up to 19% of revenue, with retail falling back to 16%. Automotive climbed to 13% from 10%.

One notable statistic in the report:  the company’s equipment count is way down. At the end of June TFI had 11,987 trucks, 39,710 trailers and 6,189 independent contractors. A year ago, the corresponding numbers were 13,511 trucks, 42,726 trailers and 6,044 independent contractors.

More articles by John Kingston

The post TFI first look: truckload shines, LTL doesn’t keep up appeared first on FreightWaves.



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Crypto firm to cover $60 million losses after SK Hynix flash crash on Hyperliquid

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Crypto firm to cover $60 million losses after SK Hynix flash crash on Hyperliquid

Decentralized perpetuals exchange Trade.xyz said it will reimburse traders liquidated when its SK Hynix perpetual futures contract crashed 19% late on Monday, a loss the company attributes to a single executed trade on a thin Korean pre-market venue rather than any failure in its systems.

The mark price, the reference figure used to calculate profits, losses and liquidations, fell from about $1,128 to $917 at 23:01 UTC on July 27, according to the company. The print came from an executed trade relayed by multiple independent data providers, and the data point feeding the contract was tracking what Trade.xyz called the primary Korean pre-market venue.

“The oracle system worked as intended according to its specification,” the company said. Nothing malfunctioned and nobody manipulated anything, on the evidence so far

The oracle, a tool that fetchs data from outside points to within a blockchain-based system, faithfully reported a real trade on a market thin enough that one order moved the price nearly a fifth, and the contract liquidated positions accordingly.

Trade.xyz said covering the losses is a one-time discretionary decision rather than a commitment to do so again, with eligibility rules to follow and payouts expected within days.



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Forecasts for Near-Normal US Temps Undercut Nat-Gas Prices

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Forecasts for Near-Normal US Temps Undercut Nat-Gas Prices


Natural gas storage facility by roibu via Adobe Stock

August Nymex natural gas (NGQ26) on Monday closed down -0.104 (-3.62%).

Nat-gas prices sank to a 2.5-month nearest-futures low on Monday and settled sharply lower.  The outlook for cooler US weather, which diminishes the need for air conditioning, is weighing on nat-gas prices.  The Commodity Weather Group said on Monday that forecasts call for normal to below-normal temperatures across the central and eastern US for August 1-5.   

More News from Barchart

A bearish factor for nat-gas prices in the medium term is speculation that a powerful El Niño weather system will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing nat-gas heating demand. 

US (lower-48) dry gas production on Monday was 113.1 bcf/day (+3.7% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Monday was 81.4 bcf/day (+2.7% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Monday were 18.1 bcf/day (+2.4% w/w), according to BNEF.

Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices.  On July 7, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 111.2 bcf/day from a June estimate of 111.0 bcf/day.

As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended July 18 rose +2.0% y/y to 101,391 GWh (gigawatt hours).  Also, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending July 18 rose +2.3% y/y to 4,350,346 GWh.

Last Thursday’s weekly EIA report was mixed for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended July 17 rose by +32 bcf, less than expectations of +34 bcf but above the 5-year weekly average increase of +30 bcf.  As of July 17, nat-gas inventories were down -0.6% y/y, and +6.4% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies.  As of July 25, gas storage in Europe was 55% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 71% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending July 24 rose by +1 rig to 127 rigs, below the 3-year high of 134 rigs set in February 2026.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com



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