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Smart People React to Trump’s New Canadian Trade War

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Smart People React to Trump's New Canadian Trade War


Big Canadian tariffs are making a comeback.

In Truth Social posts on Monday, President Donald Trump threatened a plan to impose another batch of 50% tariffs on Canadian-made products. This one impacts cars, trucks, auto parts, and steel, and would start on January 1.

The ultimatum is escalating an already bitter trade fight with one of America’s closest economic partners.

“Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years,” he wrote. “Canada will be treated like a State no longer!”

The post came after US-Canada negotiations collapsed Friday, triggering a separate set of 50% US tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has vowed to retaliate “dollar-for-dollar,” beginning September 8.

The countries have been trying to ease tariffs and disputes ahead of the scheduled review of the USMCA, the North American trade pact negotiated by Trump in his first term. That deal replaced NAFTA.

Stakes are particularly high for US automakers. Supply chains in the US and Canada are highly interconnected, and vehicle parts typically cross the border multiple times before a finalized vehicle hits American dealerships.

Here’s what smart people are saying about the impact of the fresh tariff threats:

Paul Krugman, Nobel-winning economist

Krugman compared the Canadian trade impasse with the US’s war in Iran.

Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images

Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate economist and former New York Times columnist, wrote in a Substack post Monday that he still has to “rub my eyes at the idea of Canada as an enemy.” He called Trump a “bully.”

Krugman said Canada begins the fight at a clear disadvantage: The US economy is roughly 12 times larger, and the US buys about three-quarters of Canadian exports. Still, he argued that a trade war could inflict serious pain on the US because it depends on some imports from Canada.

He pointed to specialized Canadian lumber, heavy crude oil used by Midwestern refineries, and hydropower that is an important part of the electricity supply in New York and New England. He also said disrupting cross-border auto and auto-parts trade would be “immensely disruptive” to the industry on both sides of the border.

“The bottom line is that Trump is going to lose his trade war with Canada as thoroughly as he has lost his shooting war with Iran,” he wrote.

Trevor Tombe, professor of economics at the University of Calgary

Trevor Tombe, an economist at the University of Calgary, wrote that the fresh tariffs likely won’t have a massive, immediate impact on Canada’s national economy.

He estimated that the new import plan would raise the average tariff rate on Canadian exports by about 2.5 percentage points and shave a couple of tenths of a point off GDP growth.

That doesn’t mean the effects will be evenly felt, he argued.

Tombe wrote that the tariffs could put roughly 87,000 Canadian jobs at risk if they remain in place, and affected sales fall in line with the 50% duties.

And some of those jobs would be in places that aren’t directly targeted: He estimated that Alberta could lose about 9,000 jobs even though relatively little of the province’s exports are directly affected.

David Whiston, auto industry senior analyst at Morningstar


A Ford employee walks into Ford's Oakville assembly plant right outside Toronto.

The Canadian Oakville plant is expected to start building some Ford pickup trucks, the most profitable part of the automaker’s consumer lineup.

Pawel Dwulit/Toronto Star via Getty Images

David Whiston, an auto analyst at Morningstar, said the biggest assembly exposure for Ford and GM is in pickup trucks. That’s the most profitable part of each car company’s US business.

GM builds some Chevrolet Silverados in Canada, he said, while Ford is set to bring 100,000 units of annual Super Duty pickup capacity online at its Oakville plant in the fourth quarter.

“The math on that just got a lot worse for them,” Whiston told Business Insider.

Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations


Michael Froman, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, speaks onstage.

Froman said that the new tariffs are “not economically meaningful.”

Heather Diehl/Getty Images

In an interview on CNBC, Michael Froman, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former US Trade Representative, said the 50% tariff package that took effect over the weekend affects only about 5% of Canadian exports to the US.

“It’s significant in terms of what it says about the state of the relationship right now,” he said. “But, economically, it is not terribly meaningful.”

Froman said the average tariff applied to Canadian goods has climbed to about 6%, from roughly 1% at the start of Trump’s second term — though it remains below the tariffs facing imports from China.

The bigger risk, he said, is to the USMCA.

“The US is engaged with Mexico in a series of negotiations, but is not yet really engaged with Canada,” he said.

Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Asset Management


Peter Schiff speaks onstage.

Peter Schiff wrote on X that the tariffs will make cost of living a bigger problem.

SALT

Peter Schiff, a stockbroker and frequent Trump critic, wrote on X that the tariffs would hit American consumers, not just Canadian producers.

“Americans purchase a lot of those goods from Canada, and those goods will now be vastly more expensive for Americans to buy,” he wrote, adding that the plan would worsen “the government-created cost of living crisis.”

Kelly Ann Shaw, partner at Akin

Kelly Ann Shaw, a partner at Akin and former deputy assistant to the president for international economics in Trump’s first term, said she sees no near-term resolution to the dispute.

During an interview on CNBC, Shaw said Carney’s Saturday address, in which he promised dollar-for-dollar retaliation, came across as a “victory lap” to people in the Trump administration.

“There’s a lot of frustration and bitter feelings on the US side,” she said. “I don’t really see an off-ramp anytime soon. I think Canada is going to continue to be out in the wilderness from a US negotiating perspective for a little bit now.”

Frances Donald, chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada


Frances Donald

Donald said that trade uncertainty increases the chance that the Bank of Canada won’t raise rates this year.

RBC

Frances Donald, the chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada, said the latest tariff covers only around 5% of Canadian trade with the US, with more than 80% of exports still duty-free, so it probably isn’t enough by itself to derail Canadian growth.

Still, some products will be hit hard, she said.

“Plastic products, electrical machinery, furniture and wood product sectors are among the most significantly impacted by the new measures,” she wrote in a Saturday note. “Because the tariff rate is so high and applies only to Canada, purchases of these products from Canada would be prohibitively expensive.”

She added that the renewed trade uncertainty increases the chance the Bank of Canada won’t raise rates this year.

Beichen Lin, head of Canadian strategy at Russell Investments

Beichen Lin, head of Canadian strategy at Russell Investments, said the broader new tariffs affect only about 5% of Canadian exports to the US.

He added that the US economic effect should be relatively muted, while Canada faces greater uncertainty for an economy already under pressure.

“Investors would benefit from staying disciplined and maintaining a long-term focus, while taking advantage of any tactical opportunities that might arise due to market over-reactions,” he wrote in a research note on Monday.

Jennifer Safavian, CEO of Autos Drive America

In a statement on Saturday, Jennifer Safavian, who leads Autos Drive America, a group representing international automakers operating in the US, said that Trump’s tariff policy is already hurting the US auto industry.

She added that US vehicle exports to Canada have fallen 23% over the past year.

“The U.S. auto industry’s continued success relies upon strong and stable partnerships across North America. We urge all parties to continue negotiations to finalize an interim deal,” she wrote.

David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group

Canada’s planned “dollar for dollar” retaliation on September 8 creates another deadline for the two countries to reach an agreement and potentially de-escalate, David Doyle, the head of economics at Macquarie Group, wrote in a note on Sunday.

If Canada follows through, however, it risks prompting “a subsequent escalation from the US,” potentially through additional tariffs, he added.

The economic exposure is heavily skewed toward Canada.

The goods hit by the latest US tariffs are worth about 0.8% of Canadian GDP, with the tariffs amounting to roughly 0.4% of GDP. For the US, the tariffs amount to just 0.03% of GDP.

James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth

Canada should prioritize preserving access to the US market rather than escalating its trade dispute, James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, wrote on X on Sunday.

“Broad retaliation is not a strategy,” Thorne wrote, arguing that tariffs would raise costs for Canadian households and manufacturers without addressing the country’s underlying productivity and competitiveness challenges.

He said Canada should instead focus on reforms including deregulation, faster project approvals, and fewer barriers to capital and internal trade.

Thorne also argued that deeper trade ties with China cannot replace Canada’s highly integrated economic relationship with the neighboring US.





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Can ETHFI bulls push the altcoin towards the $0.73 imbalance zone?

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moneyvests
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Can ETHFI bulls push the altcoin towards the $0.73 imbalance zone?


ether.fi’s (ETHFI) price action extended its bullish recovery recently after its bulls successfully defended a key demand zone around $0.60. The token’s recovery enhanced its technical structure as whale accumulation and buying on spot further added to its bullish technical outlook.

With a market imbalance between $0.69 and $0.73, the zone now stands out as the next major target for ETHFI bulls.

ETHFI defends key $0.60 demand zone

ETHFI has respected the $0.60-demand zone so far, allowing buyers to regain control after the recent weakness.

In the short-run, if ETHFI continues to hold above the zone, the bullish recovery could extend towards the next technical target. On the daily charts, the market imbalance between $0.69 and $0.73 would stand out as the next key target for ETHFI holders and bulls.

In most cases, the price often revisits significant imbalances as the market attempts to rebalance areas of inefficient trading. The same turn of events could be in store for ETHFI.

ETHFI price analysis
Source: TradingView

Whales increase ETHFI exposure

Additionally, the surge in whale activity on the network seemed to offer yet another bullish indication.

As per the latest Spot Future Average Order Size data, ETHFI’s big whales have continued to place their orders both in the Spot and Futures markets. These developments suggested that big players are still active around the price level of ETHFI.

The ongoing demand from whales can help boost up the recovery and offer the much-needed liquidity to counter further bearishness.

ETHFI Average Order Size dataETHFI Average Order Size data
Source: CryptoQuant

Spot buyers maintain control

That not all either as the market activity also seemed to be leaning in bulls’ favor. At the time of writing, buyers were dominating the spot market. This implied that this recovery was being powered by actual demand, rather than just leverage.

If spot buyers keep buying up the supply, ETHFI might continue to grow towards the imbalance.

ETHFI taker CVDETHFI taker CVD
Source: CryptoQuant

Can ETHFI reach $0.73?

ETHFI’s $0.60 demand zone defense, together with whales’ activity and domination by spot buyers, sets up a conducive environment for further gains. In case buyers continue to dominate, the possibility of testing the imbalance zone in the expected rally might be very certain.

A break past $0.73 would boost the bullish structure of ETHFI, while a failure before reaching the zone might see its price falling back to $0.60.

Final Summary

  • ETHFI rebounded from the $0.60 demand zone as whales increased their Spot and Futures activity.
  • Spot buyers have been dominant as the $0.69-$0.73 imbalance zone emerged as the next key target for the altcoin.



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HELOC and home equity loan rates today, Monday, August 24, 2026: A 19-basis-point differential

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moneyvests
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HELOC and home equity loan rates today, Monday, July 13, 2026: Just a 2-basis-point differential


The difference between the current home equity loan rate and the average HELOC rate is 19 basis points, according to Curinos, a real estate data analytics company. But choosing the right option doesn’t come down to just rates. It’s how you plan to use your funds that will dictate the loan product that is best for you.

HELOC and home equity loan rates: Monday, August 24, 2026

The average HELOC adjustable rate is 7.16%, a new 2026 low, according to real estate data analytics company Curinos.

The national average rate on a fixed-rate home equity loan is 7.35%, up slightly from its 2026 low of 7.31% in late June.

Both rates are based on applicants with a minimum credit score of 780 and a maximum combined loan-to-value ratio (CLTV) of less than 70%.

How do HELOC interest rates work?

Most HELOCs are variable-rate products, meaning their interest rates are tied to an external interest rate. When that rate rises or falls, the rate on your HELOC generally follows suit.

HELOCs are typically tied to the prime rate, the baseline rate banks currently charge their most creditworthy customers. 

The best HELOC lenders will assess the risk any borrower presents and add a margin to protect themselves. Riskier borrowers will have larger margins, while those considered less risky will receive smaller ones. Factors such as your credit score, debt-to-income ratio (DTI), and loan-to-value ratio (LTV) will all be considered in this assessment.

How do home equity loan interest rates work? 

A home equity loan and its interest rate work like a HELOC in some ways and like a traditional primary mortgage in others.

As with a HELOC, the prime rate usually impacts your home equity loan rates, and lenders incorporate a margin into your rate. Both HELOC and home equity loan rates are loosely influenced by the Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate and broader economic conditions.

However, like many first mortgages, home equity loans are typically fixed-rate products, meaning you’ll have the same interest rate for the entire term. Fixed-rate HELOCs exist, but they’re much less common.

Learn more: HELOC and home equity loan interest rates: How they work and what you can expect to pay

How to qualify for a HELOC or home equity loan

Specific loan requirements vary by lender, but generally, home equity loans and HELOCs require a borrower to:

  • Have a FICO credit score of 680 or higher

  • Show a history of good credit and proof of sufficient monthly income

  • Obtain an appraisal to determine the current market value of the home

  • Have at least 15% to 20% equity in the house

  • Have a debt-to-income ratio of 43% or less

  • Show proof of in-force homeowners insurance

Lenders may charge origination fees and other closing costs on a HELOC or home equity loan. When shopping for yours, make sure to ask about all possible application fees, annual charges, early account closure fees, and other one-time or ongoing expenses. Shop multiple lenders to find the lowest interest rate and the fewest fees. 

Read more: Home equity line of credit (HELOC) vs. home equity loan: What’s the difference, and which is right for you?

HELOC and home equity loan rates FAQs

What is a good interest rate on a HELOC or a HEL right now?

Rates vary significantly from one lender to the next. You may see rates from nearly 6% to as much as 18%. It really depends on your creditworthiness and how diligent you are as a shopper. The national average for a HELOC is 7.16%, and 7.35% for a home equity loan. Those can serve as a guide when shopping rates from second mortgage lenders.

Is it a good idea to get a HELOC or a home equity loan right now?

For homeowners with low primary mortgage rates and significant equity in their homes, it’s likely a good idea to consider a HELOC or a home equity loan now. First off, rates are the lowest in years. And you don’t give up that great primary mortgage rate that you earned when you bought your house. You can use cash drawn from your equity for home improvements, repairs, and upgrades. Or virtually anything else. 

What is the monthly payment on a $50,000 home equity line of credit?

If you withdraw the full $50,000 from a home equity line of credit and pay a 7.25% interest rate, for example, your monthly payment during the 10-year HELOC draw period would be about $302. That sounds good, but remember that the rate is usually variable, so it changes periodically, and your payments will increase during the 20-year repayment period. A HELOC essentially becomes a 30-year loan. HELOCs and HELs are best if you borrow and repay the balance within a much shorter period.



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Woodside Energy Profit Up As Control Speculation Grows

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moneyvests
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Woodside Energy Profit Up As Control Speculation Grows


Woodside Energy, Australia’s biggest oil and gas company lifted its underlying net profit by a modest 7% in the June half-year adding to speculation of a possible takeover bid.

The profit increase from $1.24 billion to $1.33 billion was against a background of high prices for oil and gas caused by the Iran war.

Despite the slightly better profit the company has lifted its interim dividend from 53 cents to 57c.

Woodside chief executive Liz Westcott said the company had delivered strong production, cash flow and shareholder returns, while continuing to execute the next phase of growth.

Total operating revenue in the latest half year was up 13% at $7.5 billion from the production of 86.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (oil and gas).

The profit result barely moved the Woodside share price which rose by 2.5% in early trading on the Australian stock market.

Greater investor interest is expected when the company’s flagship expansion project, the Scarbough gas development, starts shipping liquified natural gas (LNG) later this year.

Close attention is also likely to be paid to hints of a merger proposal from global oil major Exxon Mobil amid signs of boardroom instability as long serving chairman Richard Goyder steps down without a clear indication yet of his successor.

A contender for Woodside chairman is a seasoned mining industry executive Mark Cutifani, a former chief executive of London-based Anglo American, who has a seat on the Woodside board.

But questions have been asked in the Australian news media about Cutifani’s connections to Elliott Management an aggressive U.S. hedge fund.

Elliott is a major investor in the Australian gold mining company Northern Star which has been undergoing a difficult management overhaul.

Cutifani was a nominee from Eliott for a Northern Star board seat.

There was also a story in Australia’s daily business newspaper The Australian Financial Review alleging that not all Woodside directors were aware of Cutifani’s role in Elliott’s move on Northern Star.

International interest in Woodside has been growing since reports first surfaced earlier this year about Exxon Mobil looking to broaden its exposure to LNG in the Asia Pacific region.

Woodside, which does not have a dominant shareholder since another oil major, Shell, sold down its interest about 10 years ago.

As well as a wide-open share register Woodside is a major producer of LNG with interests in Australia and through the development of a U.S. project in Louisiana.



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Binance Coin: Can a $8.5M whale position keep BNB above $700?

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moneyvests
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Binance Coin: Can a $8.5M whale position keep BNB above $700?


Binance Coin [BNB] is up slightly as the broader crypto market cools off from the previous week’s uptrend.

However, whale sentiment is still positive. From a daily outlook, the altcoin remains bullish, with whales borrowing capital to go long. That said, will BNB stay above $700 and become among the strongest altcoins in this recovery?

Whale borrows capital on Venus to buy Binance Coin

A whale is going long on Binance Coin with more than $8.50 million. As per Lookonchain, the whale bought 8,474 BNB worth around $5.90 million and transferred the tokens to Venus Protocol.

The whale used a lending loop, depositing the acquired BNB tokens on Venus Protocol and using them to borrow 2.60 million USDT. The borrowed USDT was deposited into Binance to purchase more BNB.

Binance Coin BNB
Source: Lookonchain

That was not the only bullish indicator.

In the next 24 hours, the BNB ecosystem will activate Pasteur Hardfork on its mainnet. The upgrade would improve BNB’s bridges and validator protections, as BEP-675 gave builders room to fill blocks. Moreover, throughput would be higher.

However, BNB Spot ETFs have been the worst-performing altcoin ETFs so far. It has had three days of activity, with two of those days seeing inflows, while on the 21st of August, the products saw $262K in outflows. The Cumulative Total Net Inflow is $1.19 million.

Can BNB hold above $700?

The price charts showed the altcoin had broken out of a sideways range that had been in place since June. This range between $542 and $620 was below another consolidation between $583 and 688.

Currently, BNB is trading above $700, but it’s now facing resistance at the same zone. The Bollinger Bands (BBs) have opened up since the breakout, indicating a very volatile market.

The mid-level of the BBs was at $625, a zone where BNB could revert to if the broader crypto market entered a correction.

Binance CoinBNBBinance CoinBNB
Source: BNB/USDT on TradingView

However, the MACD remained bullish, though the bars have started becoming faint. This indicates bulls have eased their aggressive buying, but uptrend continuation hinges on staying above $700 and the two consolidations.

If BNB clears up the zone at $700-$720, the next price targets are set around $950 or higher. That would make Binance Coin one of the strongest altcoins in the ongoing crypto recovery. Otherwise, the altcoin might revisit levels below $690.

Final Summary

  • Whale uses BNB to borrow more capital from Venus Protocol, which he then used to buy more BNB on Binance.
  • BNB price action shows strong bullish signals, but bears were rejecting continuation at $700. 



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