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Robinhood’s Event Contracts Went From $10 Million to $156 Million of Quarterly Revenue in a Year

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Robinhood's Event Contracts Went From $10 Million to $156 Million of Quarterly Revenue in a Year


Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) has been an innovator in the discount brokerage business from day one. So it is hardly surprising that the company was quick to offer its customers access to event contracts. That has proven to be an astute move, given that the company’s event contract business grew transaction revenues by more than 10x year over year in the second quarter. Don’t get too excited; there are some potential downsides to this development.

Big event-driven growth for Robinhood

In the second quarter of 2025, Robinhood was just entering the event contract space. It generated around $10 million in transaction revenue, which was barely a blip compared to the $589 million in transaction revenues during that quarter. But event contract revenue has grown materially, hitting $156 million in the second quarter of 2026. That’s taken event contracts from a blip to 20% of the company’s transaction revenues, second only to options, which produced $342 million in revenue (nearly 45% of transaction revenues).

Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a “Double Down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same “Total Conviction” signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

Image source: Getty Images.

Before you assume this is a new growth platform for Robinhood, consider the company’s crypto business. Transactions from crypto trading declined 38% year over year, and a huge 25% sequentially from the first quarter of 2026. Revenues in this business have fallen for three consecutive quarters, with the second-quarter tally representing less than 30% of the revenue generated at the peak in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Are aggressive investors just following the crowd?

Given those two trends, investors should step back and look at Robinhood’s larger business. Its specific goal is to “democratize finance for all,” bringing new people into the world of investing. By definition, that means younger, less experienced investors. The very type of investor that is likely to be willing to take on big risks and shift between investment approaches as they learn.

Event contracts, meanwhile, are akin to betting. And there are some very big events that have been happening that would likely draw people into the event space, including the World Cup and U.S. mid-term elections. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies have been volatile and performed poorly, which would likely lead investors to look for more compelling opportunities. In other words, high-risk investors may have just shifted to a new “hot” investment theme.

If that is the case, then event contracts aren’t the huge growth opportunity they may now seem to be. That isn’t to suggest that they will go away, but 10x growth probably isn’t representative of the long-term revenue opportunity. It is likely a mistake for investors to extrapolate this innovative finance company’s event-driven growth too far into the future.

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Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Robinhood’s Event Contracts Went From $10 Million to $156 Million of Quarterly Revenue in a Year was originally published by The Motley Fool



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YouTuber Hank Green Says He Uses AI ‘Too Heavily’ in Apology to Fans

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YouTuber Hank Green Says He Uses AI 'Too Heavily' in Apology to Fans


Hank Green, one of the internet’s most steadfast and reliable content creators, said he’s slowing down production after fans criticized him for using AI.

In addition to his personal account, Green hosts the educational YouTube channels SciShow and Crash Course. SciShow is a collection of YouTube channels focused on different scientific disciplines, while Crash Course offers videos that break down topics like Latin American literature and reading statistics.

He also created the Vlogbrothers YouTube channel with his brother, John Green. Green said in a lengthy Reddit comment on Friday that fans can expect fewer YouTube videos for the foreseeable future.

“Expect less hankschannel. It may need to pause for a while,” Green wrote. “It may be that Hankschannel comes back with writing and research support. It may be that it comes back with just way fewer videos.”

Green said SMUSH and 4×3, two online daily word games he produces, will be paused.

The fresh discourse surrounding Green’s use of AI was sparked earlier that day on X, where he told users he had used OpenAI’s ChatGPT to research a script. The revelation shocked some X users, who suggested that Green undermined his credibility by using AI without disclosing it to viewers.

As tensions grew on X, Green deleted that post and pivoted to Reddit to address the situation. He told Redditors he’s “mortified” that he’s “let so many people down.”

“I have been relying too heavily on AI as a research aid. It can be very useful for this task, giving me access to a lot of papers I didn’t know existed really fast, but I think that has been to the detriment of my work because it has not given me the freedom to find all of my own ways into and around a topic,” Green said.

As tech companies push AI to become a ubiquitous part of daily life, critics have voiced concern that it could impact critical thinking skills. In 2025, a survey published by Workday found that nearly half of respondents worried the tech would cause a decline in critical thinking.

There are also concerns around mental health. OpenAI is facing several lawsuits related to users’ mental health, including those that say the chatbot encouraged suicide. In June, a coalition of states launched an investigation into ChatGPT’s impact on young users.

AI hallucinations, or when LLMs generate inaccurate outputs, are another problem. They’ve begun popping up in court documents, forcing lawyers and law firms to apologize for including false or misleading information. They’ve also shown up in reports from some of the world’s largest consulting firms.

Green said he uses AI to find resources to research different topics. He said, however, that fans deserve to know when his words are his own or a chatbot’s.

“I’ve been moving so fast that my own process isn’t actually clear to me and I want to have it be a guarantee moving forward,” Green said.

Green told fans that he’s not anti-AI but understands some of their concerns, such as how the tech is trained, its environmental implications, and the consolidation of economic power by tech companies. He ultimately apologized.

“It is very likely that you (the reader) and I disagree on how or even whether AI should be used,” Green said. “I think it makes sense for that disagreement to exist. But I have also always believed that my audience is more likely to be right than I am. You know what this feels like in a way I can’t. And I am so sorry for diluting myself in this way and harming the thing that we have all built together.”

In the post, Green said he feels pressure when creating content and will strive to manage himself more effectively. He’ll also address his interactions with AI, which he described as unhealthy.

“But mostly I need to come to terms with the fact that the level of dopamine I’ve been getting from interacting with LLMs…with doing more and more and more and more…is not healthy for me or good for the world,” Green said. “It is careless, and has disconnected me from where people are on this.”





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2026 FIFA World Cup saw $20 billion in prediction market volume

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2026 FIFA World Cup saw $20 billion in prediction market volume

The 2026 FIFA World Cup generated a record $20 billion in prediction market volume, according to blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis.

The figure encompasses activity across nearly 400,000 wallets starting in January 2026 with $5.7 billion in volume generated during the tournament itself, Chainalysis said in a Thursday report.

Markets ranged from the simple question of who would win the international soccer tournament to whether Portugal legend Cristiano Ronaldo would cry when his team was eliminated (he did).

The World Cup, held in June and July, represented by far the biggest prediction market event in terms of volume, shattering the $3.6 billion traded during the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Other notable events were Super Bowl 60 in February and the NCAA’s basketball tournament known as March Madness, both of which eclipsed the $1 billion mark.

Prediction markets offer derivatives contracts on the outcome of future events, and settle when the relevant event takes place.

Market leader Polymarket runs on blockchain rails with trades and settlement in stablecoin USDC. As a result, the platforms have become one of the ways in which blockchain technology has gained significant mainstream attention.



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J.P. Morgan drops Fed rate bombshell over Warsh, inflation

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J.P. Morgan drops Fed rate bombshell over Warsh, inflation


The cool news is that the latest data from the Federal Reserve‘s preferred inflation indicator came in lower than consensus in June, primarily due to a drop in energy prices.

The not-so-cool news? During his second Fed Day as Chairman of the U.S. central bank, Kevin Warsh hemmed and hawed over whether the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index would continue to serve that role.

And didn’t offer a hint as to what the replacement might be. 

As I reported, this lack of transparent strategy really ticked off Wall Street — more than the Federal Open Market Committee’s decisive 9-3 vote to hold short-term benchmark interest rates steady July 29. Bonds sold off sharply with the 30-year Treasury hitting 5.22%.

Within hours of Warsh’s post-meeting press conference, J.P. Morgan abruptly shifted its forecast for the Fed’s interest-rate outlook to a hawkish one. 

The headline on the note?  “Talk is Cheap.”

J.P. Morgan Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli said the Fed would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December instead of the second half of 2027.

The note to clients expects the Fed to continue to hold the Federal Funds Rate at 3.75%-4.00% after the December hike but added that the risk of a September rate increase is real.

Feroli’s research update said that Warsh’s ambiguous signaling raises concerns about the central bank’s inflation strategy.

“It’s hard to know what to make of Warsh’s remarks, which involved a lot of well-turned phrases but little in the way of a coherent macro view,” Feroli wrote to clients, adding that the new Chairman “once again failed to specify how he intended to achieve his stridently asserted inflation resolve,” creating additional policy uncertainty for financial markets.

Fed’s mandate balances interest rates, jobs and prices

The Fed’s congressional dual mandate requires full employment and price stability. 

The FOMC post-meeting statement was a terse five paragraphs that described the economic activity as “expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.” It cited the energy shocks that have driven up prices in some sectors.

Warsh has repeatedly vowed the Fed would bring inflation down to its 2% target — a measure it has missed for the last 63 months. He deflected questions from reporters on July 29 as to how this will be achieved with responses that included that there is “no magic wand.”

(You can read the entire transcript of Warsh’s press conference here and watch the video here.) 



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Can Solana hold $60? Major signs point to extended losses in August

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Can Solana hold $60? Major signs point to extended losses in August


Since the 9th of July, Solana [SOL] bulls tried repeatedly to drive a price move beyond the $80 round-number supply zone. They met with little success.

Steady network usage and growing stablecoin liquidity pointed to a resilient ecosystem, but not necessarily a price recovery.

The constructive signal from on-chain metrics was met by bearish price action since April 2025. Even the rally towards the end of the year that reached $253 was only a retracement phase, well before Bitcoin [BTC] entered its bear market.

Here’s a thorough breakdown of the long-term trends and what traders and investors can expect from SOL in August.

Bitcoin ATHs came when Solana was already in a bearish trend

Solana 1-week Chart
Source: SOL/USDT on TradingView

Solana was trending higher in 2024. The move beyond the $210 swing high (green) in November 2024 signaled a bullish continuation. It originated from the $110 (white) swing low.

When this swing low was breached in March 2025, it signaled a swing structure break on the weekly timeframe. Within this bearish trend, a rally to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $252.9 came later in 2025, when Bitcoin was making new all-time highs.

Seen through these lenses, the drawdown since September made perfect sense. The Fibonacci extension level at $47.9 also forecasted a potential bear market price target for SOL.

The August expectations for Solana

Solana 1-day ChartSolana 1-day Chart
Source: SOL/USDT on TradingView

The 1-day timeframe was also bearish. The RSI was below neutral 50, and the MACD has made a bearish crossover below the zero line. The momentum indicators agreed upon further downside potential.

So did the price action. After facing rejection from the 61.8% retracement level at $83.8, SOL has suffered steady losses throughout July.

Over the past week, the price tested the $73.4 local support zone before falling below it on Friday, the 31st of July. This meant that the short-term expectations are also bearish.

The next price targets in August are $64.1 and $60.1. Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez also came to the same conclusion after the altcoin lost a channel support.

If a heavy Bitcoin sell-off occurs, it is likely that Solana prices would drop towards or lower than $50.


Final Summary

  • The constructive signal from on-chain metrics has been facing the reality of bearish price action recently.
  • In the coming weeks, a price drop toward $60 can be expected.



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RWA perps will outpace tokenization

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RWA perps will outpace tokenization

Traders have no way to react to events after markets close on TradFi venues. Perps on the other hand run 24/7. The Iran conflict was reflected in oil perps on Hyperliquid before CME reopened. Perps offer a continuously running, efficient market in a simple interface. Futures and options come with expiry dates, complicated greeks and interfaces. Perps remove all of that while keeping the speculative upside potential intact.

Martin Lee is Market Insights Lead of DWF Labs, one of the most active market makers and investors in digital assets.

Derivatives always outgrow spot

Derivatives volumes always outgrow their underlying spot market. It’s what we see in equities, commodities and crypto. RWAs are following the same trend. Equity perp volume on Hyperliquid ran 13-20x tokenized equity spot volume between March and May 2026.

You could argue that the number of traders matter more, a metric that spot usually wins out across most markets (except commodities). Looking into the numbers, tokenized equities have the bigger base: 180,845 wallets against 24,378 for equity perps. But perp holders are compounding at roughly 33% a month against spot’s 17%. Even in the domain where spot dominates, perps are rapidly closing the gap.

Perps innovate faster

The biggest factor driving the acceleration is the rapid rate of experimentation that RWA perps are able to have. Launching tokenized assets takes much longer and is more legally complex than launching a new perp market. The ease of launching perp markets creates opportunities for novel synthetic markets to be spun up. Markets that unlock fresh opportunities that didn’t exist before. A true 0 to 1 moment.



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Closing on a house: What to expect

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Closing on a house: What to expect


Key takeaways

  • Closing on a house is a complex process that takes several weeks and involves many steps for you and your lender.

  • On closing day, you’ll sign a stack of documents, pay closing costs and receive the keys to your house.

  • Several issues can delay closing, including a low home appraisal, failing to get financing, unmet contingencies and title issues.

Closing day is the last step associated with a real estate sale that involves finalizing the transaction and transferring home ownership from the seller to the buyer. It can take a couple of months between signing a purchase agreement and reaching closing day. For homebuyers, closing is the day you officially take over ownership of the property and receive the keys. For sellers, closing is the day you’ll receive proceeds from the sale.

On closing day itself, the homebuyer will sign paperwork that finalizes the deal. Often, many other parties are present for closing day, including the seller, the lender, real estate agents, the closing agent and an attorney who will review the paperwork being signed.

Learn more: Timeline for closing on a house

Steps to prepare for closing on a house

For homebuyers, there are many tasks to complete during the closing phase. At the same time, many steps are simultaneously handled by your lender and your real estate agent, who help coordinate with the proper parties.

1. Get a home inspection

Getting a home inspection is essential. Even the most beautiful houses can have hidden issues.

During a home inspection, a contractor or professional inspector will check the home for major issues, like foundation cracks, leaks, problems with the plumbing or electrical system and potential safety hazards. Depending on the results of the inspection, you might decide to back out of the deal, or you can ask the seller to fix the issues as a sale contingency.

2. Consider hiring a real estate lawyer

Buying a house isn’t just a transaction between the buyer and seller. It’s also a relatively complex legal process. Although it’s usually optional, you may benefit from hiring a real estate attorney, which can help you avoid unexpected issues down the line.

3. Buy homeowners insurance

Most lenders will require you to purchase homeowners insurance before they’ll finalize your loan. Homeowners insurance policies provide financial protection from losses related to events like fires and wind damage.

Specific insurance requirements vary based on where your new home is located. In some parts of the country, you may also need to obtain coverage for flooding or earthquakes. As with any other major financial decision, you should shop around for the best plan coverage for your needs.



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